GOP Delegate Allocation by Congressional District

I was wrong about voters in ‘Red America’ having disproportionate voting power in the Republican primaries. This is due to the fact that, as David Wasserman pointed out last November, congressional districts are allocated the same number delegates no matter how many Republican voters actually live there. I didn’t think this alone would be enough to cancel out the advantage that Red states have, but I was wrong. A Blue district voter has about 1.32 times the voting power of a Red district voter. Here is a graph of the disproportion by congressional district(a few outliers not shown):

GOP Delegates by Congressional District

Here’s the same chart with Romney voting states colored red:

GOP Delegates by Congressional District 2

I calculated the coefficient of overrepresentation using the following equation:

equation 2

where dd = delegates per district, sd is state delegates(not including RNC delegates, including district delegates allocated by the way the state votes), pRs is the percent of the Romney vote in the state which came from that district(calculated as the percent Romney vote in the district divided by the sum of the percent Romney vote in all the districts), pR is the percent who voted for Romney.

Of course, some districts have slightly higher populations than others, and some districts have more people voting. The equation does not account for that, treating all districts as if they had the same number of voters.

Data is here.


David Wasserman, The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump, FiveThirtyEight, November 4 2015

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016, Wikipedia, accessed March 7 2016,_2016&oldid=708862455

David Nir, Daily Kos Elections’ presidential results by congressional district for the 2012 and 2008 elections, Daily Kos, November 12 2012

This entry was posted in Republican Party. Bookmark the permalink.