GOP Exit Polls by State

Exit polls usually have high margins of error, meaning the 5 or 6 percent difference between one group or another may not be statistically significant. You can tell it is when you find it consistently, across states. CNN has exit polls from 13 states on their website.

Trump won more men than women in every state, Rubio won more women in 12 out of 13.

trump rubio cruz by gender

Trump also did better with older voters than younger ones, in general(edit, Tennessee fixed):

Trump by age

Republican primary voters are very old, on average, and it is likely that the young people Trump’s message resonates most with, the lower income, are least likely to vote in primaries at this stage of their lives. Here’s the same chart for Cruz and Rubio:

cruz by age

rubio by age

This chart shows responses to the question “evangelical or born again Christian?”

trump rubio cruz evangelicals

Rubio does worse among evangelicals almost everywhere, the three states where Rubio did better are places where Kasich and the other establishment candidates took the votes of “moderates” which would have otherwise gone to Rubio. It has been widely observed that Trump does worse among evangelicals, but that does not appear true in the South, Texas and Oklahoma excepted. Trump’s (relatively) poor performance among evangelicals would be more dramatic if age was accounted for.


Republican Exit Polls, CNN Politics, accessed March 2 2016

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