More on GOP Delegate Allocation by State

David Wasserman wrote an article in FiveThirtyEight about the GOP’s delegate allocation rules. He points out that:

(…)Under RNC rules, Republican voters in heavily Democratic districts (like Nancy Pelosi’s in San Francisco) select just as many delegates as those in heavily Republican districts (like Kevin McCarthy’s in Bakersfield), making their individual votes more valuable.(…)

I had not considered that in my blog post about GOP delegate allocation by state. I haven’t done the math but I believe that the process should still give disproportionate voting power to Red America. Not all the delegates are ‘district’ delegates allocated based on the votes in that district, many of the ‘district’ delegates are allocated on the basis of the statewide vote. Wasserman also points out that states/districts where Obama won are more likely to use winner take all delegate allocation.

[[Update 3/7/2016: In fact, Blue America is advantaged.]]

If the voters in blue districts have greater voting power compared with voters in red districts in the same state, is that a good or bad thing for Trump? Wasserman’s example of San Francisco would certainly be hostile territory for Trump, but that isn’t necessarily true of blue districts nationwide. In the South, majority Black districts will probably differ little from the surrounding areas in political orientation. In the Midwest, blue districts may be more favorable to Trump, as he does better among non-evangelicals outside the South. He also should be expected to do well in urban districts which are majority Black or Hispanic and where the voters there will be working class Whites favorable to Trump’s message.

Reference

David Wasserman, Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump, FiveThirtyEight, February 24 2015, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-last-ditch-hope-to-stop-donald-trump/

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