The hope for party insiders is that you never get to the stage where you have to bean-count delegates. The process is supposed to get finished early so the party can unite behind a candidate. It’s not looking like that will happen this year. So on with the bean counting.
I wondered whether the process advantaged certain states over others by giving them proportionally more delegates. The process, in general, favors small states, and delivers a less significant benefit to states which have voted Republican. I made a map showing whether states were underrepresented or overrepresented, even slightly:
However, when compared not to the number of people in a state but to the number of Republican or Republican-leaning voters, measured by the number of Romney voters in 2012, the map looks different, however it still favors small state, and thus Red, America:
Indeed, when comparing “red” America to “blue” America(Defined as those states where the candidate won 3 out of the last 4 election) red america has a distinct advantage(the territories also get delegates):
|Percent of:||Total Population(2015)||Republican Leaning Voters||Delegates|
This is going to be good for Cruz and Trump, bad for the establishment candidates.
[[Update 2/24/2016: There’s a factor I hadn’t considered before which will reduce the voting power of red America, though I think they are still relatively advantaged.]]
[[Update 3/7/2016: In fact, Blue America is advantaged by that factor.]]