GOP Delegate Allocation by State

The hope for party insiders is that you never get to the stage where you have to bean-count delegates. The process is supposed to get finished early so the party can unite behind a candidate. It’s not looking like that will happen this year. So on with the bean counting.

I wondered whether the process advantaged certain states over others by giving them proportionally more delegates. The process, in general, favors small states, and delivers a less significant benefit to states which have voted Republican. I made a map showing whether states were underrepresented or overrepresented, even slightly:

usa map overrep

However, when compared not to the number of people in a state but to the number of Republican or Republican-leaning voters, measured by the number of Romney voters in 2012, the map looks different, however it still favors small state, and thus Red, America:

usa map overrep 2


Indeed, when comparing “red” America to “blue” America(Defined as those states where the candidate won 3 out of the last 4 election) red america has a distinct advantage(the territories also get delegates):

Percent of: Total Population(2015) Republican Leaning Voters Delegates
Red America 36.66 41.15 47.37
Blue America 47.26 40.71 38.08
Purple America 16.1 18.07 12.69
Total 100.02 99.93 98.14

This is going to be good for Cruz and Trump, bad for the establishment candidates.

[[Update 2/24/2016: There’s a factor I hadn’t considered before which will reduce the voting power of red America, though I think they are still relatively advantaged.]]

[[Update 3/7/2016: In fact, Blue America is advantaged by that factor.]]

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2 Responses to GOP Delegate Allocation by State

  1. Steve Sailer says:

    Wouldn’t it make more sense to overweight states like Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina that tend to be close in November?


    • jasonbayz says:

      It would make sense, though I’d think it would make people in Red states rather unhappy given that they see themselves as the “purest” conservatives in contrast to those people in the swing states who Can’t Make Up Their Minds. Blue state republicans are getting a pretty bad deal in terms of representation, in addition to being underrepresented in the presidential primaries they are greatly underrepresented in congress, with most of the Republican congressmen coming from the red or purple regions. This is one way that the first past the post system ends up encouraging relative extremism, something it is usually credited with discouraging: the Democrats are disproportionately represented by San Francisco and the Republicans by Oklahoma.


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